Is China Stealing Jobs? It May Be Losing Them, Instead

Rising costs have also significantly altered China's competitive position compared with the United States.

In a 2015 study, the Boston Consulting Group said the costs of manufacturing in China's major export-producing zone were now almost the same as in the United States, after taking into account wages, worker productivity, energy costs and other factors.

Without the lure of large cost savings, more American companies are "reshoring," or moving factories back. In a separate survey of large United States manufacturers conducted by BCG last year, 24 percent said that they were actively shifting production home from China or were planning to do so over the next two years, up from only 10 percent in 2012.

"It just makes economic sense," said Hal Sirkin, a senior partner at BCG. "The U.S. right now is in a very favorable position."

That means more jobs for American factory workers. Half of the respondents in the BCG survey said they expected the number of manufacturing workers they employed in the United States to increase over the next five years.

And it is not just the United States that is taking jobs away from China. Rising costs are driving many companies in a variety of sectors to relocate business to a wide range of other countries. In the most recent survey from the American Chamber of Commerce in China, a quarter of respondents said they had either already moved or were planning to m ove operations out of China, citing rising costs as the top reason. Of those, almost half are moving into other developing countries in Asia, while nearly 40 percent are shifting to the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Many of the factories moving away make the products often found on the shelves of American retailers.

Stella International, a footwear manufacturer headquartered in Hong Kong that makes shoes for Michael Kors, Rockport and other major brands, closed one of its factories in China in February and shifted some of that production to plants in Vietnam and Indonesia. TAL, another Hong Kong-based manufacturer that makes clothing for American brands including Dockers and Brooks Brothers, plans to close one of its Chinese factories this year and move that work to new facilities in Vietnam and Ethiopia.

Other companies with an extensive presence in China may not be closing factories, but are targeting new inv estments elsewhere.

Taiwan's Foxconn, best known for making Apple iPhones in Chinese factories, is planning to build as many as 12 new assembly plants in India, creating around one million new jobs there. A pilot operation in the western Indian state of Maharashtra will start churning out mobile phones later this year.

And though China remains by far the largest exporter of clothing to the United States, it is facing more competition from lower-cost rivals in Asia. Last year, China's market share of apparel exports to America declined, while countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh gained, according to a March report from the Fung Business Intelligence Centre, a Hong Kong-based research outfit that specializes in supply chain and sourcing issues.

"It's not like China is an attractive location for all low-cost jobs," said James Zimmerman, the American Chamber's chairman in Beijing. "China is moving up the value chain, which will mean an adjustment."

Chinese workers are also facing job losses because of the country's stumbling economy.

The rate of growth has dropped to its slowest pace in a quarter-century, hurting many industries. Manufacturing — which accounts for about a fifth of all urban employment in China — has been hit especially hard. Officially, China's job market is weathering the downturn surprisingly well, with government data showing unemployment of only 4 percent.

Some economists, however, belie ve the employment situation is not as rosy as official statistics suggest. A June report from Fathom Consulting, based in London, estimates that unemployment and underemployment in China will reach 12.9 percent this year — triple the level in 2012.

Leland Miller, the chief executive of China Beige Book International, a research firm, says the job market hit a critical inflection point late last year, as the weakening economy finally started to bite. His figures show hiring began to plunge in the fourth quarter of 2015, and though the situation stabilized in recent months, probably because of greater government stimulus, Mr. Miller believes the improvement is not sustainable.

Factory workers in China, already suffering, may face even tougher times ahead.

Many industrial companies are burdened by excess capacity, and downsizing may be unavoidable. In February, China's minister for human resources and social security estimated that 1.8 million w orkers could lose their jobs in the steel and coal sectors alone.

"If anyone is claiming that China is still enjoying a healthy or robust jobs market," Mr. Miller said, "they have no idea what they're talking about."

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